Photo: NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations
Tropical Storm Vance is forecast to intensify rapidly and could become a major hurricane as it approaches the southwestern coast of Mexico next week. As of Thursday (October 22), Vance was located about 500 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and moving slowly west at 3 mph.
Forecasters expect Vance to strengthen into a hurricane by Thursday evening, then quickly intensify into a Category 3 major hurricane by late Friday with sustained winds reaching 120 mph. The National Hurricane Center projects that Vance will reach peak strength on Saturday before slowing as it moves northwest early next week. By late Tuesday or Wednesday, the storm is expected to approach the Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit, potentially bringing damaging winds, heavy rain, and flooding to Mexico's Pacific coast.
According to AccuWeather, multiple scenarios remain possible. Vance could either stay at sea or make a direct landfall on Mexico’s west-central coastline. If the storm remains offshore, coastal areas could see wind gusts between 40 and 60 mph and rainfall totals up to two inches, with some areas potentially receiving as much as six inches. However, if Vance turns northeast toward land, wind gusts could exceed 100 mph, with rainfall measured in feet and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides possible.
Forecast models also show that moisture from Vance could be carried northward into parts of South Texas, increasing rain chances for cities such as San Antonio and the Rio Grande Valley late next week. The most likely timeframe for this rain is between October 29 and October 31. Local rain chances in San Antonio are currently projected at 30 to 40 percent, though these estimates may change as the storm’s track becomes clearer.
Drought conditions persist in the region, with nearly 80 percent of Bexar County under at least moderate drought, and 48 percent experiencing severe drought, making any potential rainfall from Vance notable for the area.
The National Hurricane Center also confirmed that Vance was forecast to become a hurricane by the end of Thursday, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph as of early Thursday and the storm positioned about 505 miles south of Acapulco.
While the precise impacts for Mexico and South Texas remain uncertain and depend on Vance’s track, officials and meteorologists continue to monitor the situation closely, with updates expected in the coming days.