It’s time for a special Thanksgiving Blazin’ 5 for NFL Week 12 on a holiday Wednesday. Last week, Colin went 3-2 for the second week in a row, bringing him to 31-23-1 on the year.
The holidays are here, and Uncle Colin wants to give you a little extra stuffing to help you out during the season. Turkey is so much more delicious when you wash it down with a cover.
Here are his Blazin’ 5 plays for Thanksgiving and NFL Week 12.
- Redskins at Cowboys (-7) – Colin has picked against the Cowboys all season, but this week he’s hopping on the Dak train. The Cowboys are a ridiculous 9-0-1 against the spread this year, and have won 5 of 7 over Redskins. Washington is heading on the road to play early in the week after playing in the Sunday night game.
What else can you say about the Cowboys at this point, other than they’re dominant? They lead NFL in time of possession (33:27) and scoring differential (+98). They’re also 2nd in rushing offense (156.7 ypg), 4th in total offense (413.1 ypg), and tied for 3rd in scoring (28.5 ppg).
Dak Prescott has the NFL’s 3rd highest passer rating (108.6), and has thrown 17 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. Over his last 3 games, he has 8 touchdowns and 0 picks, and is averaging 289 passing yards per game. Ezekiel Elliott leads the NFL with rushing yards, including 8 straight games with 90+ yards.
The Cowboys get a lead early, then stomp on Washington’s throat late. Take Dallas and lay the 7. 33-23, Cowboys.
2. Panthers (+3.5) at Raiders – Colin loves the Raiders, and Derek Carr is his MVP to this point, but he doesn’t like them giving 3.5 at Oakland Coliseum, where they’re just 2-2 on the year. They’re 6-0 away from home, including a win in Mexico against the Texans. The Panthers have won 3 of their last 4, and are well rested for a West coast road trip. They haven’t left Charlotte since Week 6.
Cam Newton has won 10 of his last 14 road starts, and he’ll face a Raiders defense that’s allowing an NFL worst 6.22 yards per play, and 393.6 net yards per game, which is 4th worst in the league. Oakland also has a league worst 15 sacks. Take the Panthers on the road, and the 3.5 in the outright upset. 30-27, Carolina.
3. Chargers (-1) at Texans – Colin likes the Chargers giving a point heading into Houston. The Chargers are coming off a Week 11 bye, while the Texans get a short week after a tough Monday night loss to the Raiders in Mexico City. The quarterback matchup isn’t even close.
Philip Rivers has thrown for 320 or more yards in 5 of his last 8 games for a Chargers offense that that’s putting up 29.2 points per game (2nd in NFL), and leads the NFL with 46 red zone drives.
The Texans offense with Brock Osweiler has been a disaster. They rank 30th in passing offense, averaging 4.7 yards per play (2nd fewest in NFL), 18.1 ppg, (5th fewest in NFL). The Texans are the only team this season with a winning record to average less than 20.0 points per game. Take the Chargers, lay the 1. 34-26, San Diego.
4. Cardinals at Falcons (-4) – Colin likes the Falcons giving 4.5 at home against a Cardinals team that was punished last week, and faced disruption with the hospitalization of head coach Bruce Arians.
The Falcons are rested and coming off a bye. Atlanta’s offense is averaging an NFL-best 32.0 points per game for the season. The Cardinals can’t rush the passer. Their 8 sacks since Week 6, is tied for the 6th fewest in the NFL. Take the Falcons and give the 4. 30-20, Atlanta.
5. Chiefs (+3.5) at Broncos – Andy Reid and the Chiefs have won 17 of their last 20, and Colin likes them getting 3.5 on the road in Denver. This one should be the definition of a grind-it-out battle. Both defenses force turnovers, the Chiefs ranks 1st in takeaways (23), the Broncos are tied for 2nd (20). Kansas City also takes care of the ball with a +13 turnover differential, which is tied for a league best. The Broncos rank 6th (+5).
The Broncos defense hasn’t been as dominant as they were to start the year, ranking 23rd in total defense and allowing 379.7 yards per game since Week 8. The Broncos offense with Trevor Siemian has also stalled out. Since Week 8, Siemian has completed just 54.8%of his passes, with 4 touchdowns, 4 interceptions and a 74.4 passer rating. Take Kansas City, the 3.5 and the outright upset. 24-23, Chiefs.
Make sure you download, listen and subscribe to Colin’s Blazin’ 5 Prediction Podcast with RJ Bell every Saturday morning through the end of the football season. He’ll sit down with RJ and see how this week’s Blazin’ 5 stacks up against the Vegas sharps.