The Super Bowl is the final bet of the NFL gambling season and after going 2-0 last week in the conference championship games, and Colin is ready to close out the gambling season with a big, fat cover on Sunday.
Houston, we have a payday.
Here’s Colin’s Super Bowl LI Blazin’ 1 pick and analysis:
Super Bowl LI: New England (-3) vs. Atlanta (Under 59) – The Falcons have only been held under 360 yards twice this season, and in one of those games they still scored 32 points. Atlanta’s going to move the ball. Atlanta’s going to score. Matt Ryan has 18 touchdowns and no interceptions in his last 6 games. He’s a precision quarterback, and should be able to consistently gain small chunks of yardage against the top ranked Patriots defense.
There’s a reason the Patriots are a favorite. They’re the more complete team. The Falcons are weak at corner, and don’t generate much of a pass rush after NFL sack leader Vic Beasley, Jr. The Falcons defense is schematically simple, and historically, Tom Brady has been able to shred opponents if they aren’t disguising coverage.
Colin thinks Belichick will counter the high-powered Atlanta offense by slowing the game down, and maintaining long, time consuming drives by pounding LeGarrette Blount.
Matt Ryan has never won a playoff game outside of Atlanta. He’s also been slightly better at home this season (26 TD, 72% Comp.), than on the road (67% Comp., 19 TD), and Matty Ice’s All-Pro center, Alex Mack, is injured and nowhere near 100%.
The key matchup in the game is the inexperienced Atlanta defense versus Tom Brady. The Falcons are only the 7th team to make the playoffs after giving up over 400 points in a season. The statistics say Brady is going to methodically carve up the young, basic Falcon defense. The Falcons defense improved late in the season, but they didn’t face any elite quarterbacks. When they faced Drew Brees, a savvy elite veteran in the mold of Brady, they lost.
Colin sees both teams putting points on the board, and it tightening up in the fourth quarter. Brady and Belichick pull it out in the end, again. New England covers the field goal, and barely sneaks in under the total. 31-27, Pats.
Ra-jah, hand him the Trophy.