Colin is coming off a bizarre 1-2-2 week, including two pushes, but is still 40-27-3 on the year, and looking to sprint through the finish of the regular season. He loves this week’s games and can’t wait to unwrap some holiday winners.
Here are Colin’s Week 16 NFL plays:
- Bills (+12) at Patriots – Colin can’t pass up the Bills getting 12 in Foxboro, where they’re 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Patriots. Buffalo is 6th in the NFL in rushing (129.1 YPG), which should allow them to shorten the game, and Tyrod Taylor can make some things happen against a New England defense that’s giving up 25.5 PPG and a Pass Rating of 111.4 in their last 2.
Also, Tom Brady is in the middle of his worst stretch of the season, throwing for just 2 TD’s, with 4 INT’s, and Passer Rating of 75.0. Pats win, but Buffalo covers the 12. 28-20.
- Falcons at Saints (-5.5) – Colin doesn’t like swallowing points, but he’ll take the Saints laying 5.5, at home against Atlanta. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS over their last 5 on the road, and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 in New Orleans. Drew Brees has been hot in his last 8 games, completing 74.0% of his passes with 10 Pass TD’s, 3 INT’s, and a Passer Rating of 107.3. He should pick apart an Atlanta D that has given up 7 Pass TD’s, forced only 1 INT, and allowed an opposing QB Passer Rating of 119.0 in their last 3.
Matt Ryan is only completing 55.2% of his passes with 2 Pass TD’s, 3 INT’s, and a Passer Rating of 70.4 in his last 3 games. He’ll struggle against a Saints defense that’s only allowing opposing QB’s to complete 51.5%, with 2 Pass TD’s, 5 INT’s and a Passer Rating of 48.8 since star rookie corner Marshon Lattimore returned to the lineup. Take the Saints, lay the 5.5. 32-24.
- Jags (-4) at 49ers – Colin loves Jimmy G, but he’ll take the Jags as 4-point road favorites in San Francisco. Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS over their last 5, 7-2 ATS over their last 9 on the road, and their defense ranks 1st in the NFL in PPG and Sacks, and 2nd in Takeaways. Garoppolo should be under pressure all day.
Blake Bortles is playing the best football of his career, and Jacksonville is 8-0 on the year when he doesn’t throw a pick, outscoring opponents by 22.3 PPG, and only allowing 8.6 PPG in those games. The Niners D only has 7 INT’s on the year, so he should stay mistake free. Sacksonville wins and covers the 4. 28-17.
- Rams (-6.5) at Titans – Colin doesn’t buy the Titans, so he’s rolling with the high-scoring Rams laying 6.5, on the road in Tennessee. L.A. is 7-2 ATS over their last 9, 5-1 ATS over their last 6 on the road, and over their last 3 games, the defense has held opposing QB’s to a 79.4 Passer Rating, and only 54% Completions.
They’ll face Marcus Mariota, who has posted career worsts in YDS/Pass, Interceptions, and Passer Rating. It’s a big number on the road, but the Rams score enough to cover the 6.5. 31-23, L.A.
5. Seahawks (+5) at Cowboys – Colin is taking the struggling Seahawks getting 5.5 in a bounce back game after getting humiliated by the Rams. It may be Zeke’s return game, but this is all about Russell Wilson coming off a loss.
Sunday was only the Seahawks 3rd Loss by 10+ points since drafting Wilson. Following the previous 2, Seattle won both games by an average of 23.5 PPG. Dallas wins. Seattle keeps it close and covers. 24-23.
— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) December 22, 2017