It’s time for the Blazin’ 5 for NFL Week 11. Colin got back in the black last week, going 3-2 to bring him to 28-21-1 on the year with his picks. This week Colin’s ready to stack more paper than Dunder Mifflin.
Don’t listen to your buddy Willy “The Detached Retina”. Colin’s picks this week will have you seeing more green than an alien conspiracy theorist.
Here are his Blazin’ 5 plays for NFL Week 11.
1. Dolphins (-1) at Rams – The Dolphins stayed on the left coast after beating San Diego last week, and Colin can’t believe they’re only giving a point against the Rams in rookie Jared Goff’s first career start. Goff faces a Miami defense that forced 4 picks against Philip Rivers last week, and has an NFL best 8 interceptions over the last 4 games.
Ryan Tannehill is impersonating a franchise quarterback all of a sudden. During the Dolphins’ current 4 game winning streak he has a 102.4 quarterback rating and hasn’t thrown an interception. Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi is averaging 180.3 yards per game on the ground during the streak, which is tops in the league over that span. The Dolphins win this one going away in their extended west coast stay. 31-13 Miami.
2. Bills (+3) at Bengals – Colin loves the Bills getting 3 points going into Cincy this week. Buffalo is an under the radar quality team. They rank 1st in the NFL in 1st quarter scoring (6.4 ppg), which is great news when you’re riding a road dog.
The Bills lead the NFL in 20+ yard runs (14), and 20+ yard touchdown runs (4). Their 155 rushing yards per game is 2nd in the league, and they should run wild on the Bengals’ 24th ranked rushing defense. Buffalo is the better football team right now, and the Bengals are coming off a short week. Take the Bills and the field goal. 28-26, Buffalo.
3. Bears (+7) at Giants – Colin doesn’t trust Smokin’ Jay Cutler at all, but he’s still taking the Bears getting 7 in New York. Colin’s general rule is that a team that gets humiliated the previous week is due for a bounceback game, and the Bears were embarrassed last week against the Bucs.
Colin doesn’t trust the Giants, who despite their 6-3 record, have a -2 point differential and a league worst -8 turnover margin. They’re also bad as a favorite, with 8 of their last 9 games decided by 7 points or less. The G-Men win a close one, but the Bears cover the 7. 24-22, New York.
4. Packers (+2.5) at Redskins – Washington has been good to Colin all year in the Blazin’ 5, but this week he’s going with Packers as a road dog getting 2.5. Washington has been winning, but they don’t put teams away. The only team they’ve beaten by more than a touchdown all year is the lowly Browns. They also struggle to score touchdowns in the red zone, ranking last in the league in red zone touchdown efficiency, converting only 38.9% of their drives inside the 20 into 6.
The Washington defense has allowed 20+ points in 8 of their last 9 games, and the Packer offense is averaging 27.3 points over their last 4. Green Bay was manhandled by the Titans last week, and Colin is calling the bounce back upset. Take the Packers and the 2.5. 27-26, Green Bay.
5. Ravens (+7.5) at Cowboys – Cowboys fans already hate Colin for picking against them all year. Why stop now? He likes Baltimore getting 7.5 on the road in Big D. Dallas has the best rushing attack in the NFL, but the Ravens lead the league in rush defense. Strength vs. Strength.
The Cowboys are a mind blowing 8-0-1 against the spread this year, but you can’t beat the house forever. Dallas is giving too many points against a good defense, and the Cowboys are coming off an emotional last second win in Pittsburgh last week. The Cowboys win this one, but the Ravens cover the 7.5. 24-20 Dallas.
Make sure you download, listen and subscribe to Colin’s Blazin’ 5 Prediction Podcast with RJ Bell every Saturday morning through the end of the football season. He’ll sit down with RJ and see how this week’s Blazin’ 5 stacks up against the Vegas sharps.
— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) November 18, 2016