NFL Week 11 is here and it’s time for Colin’s Blazin’ 5 picks. He’s coming off another winning week (3-2), and is a solid 30-20 on the year (60.0%). This week, more winners.
Here are Colin’s Week 11 NFL plays:
- Lions at Bears (+3) – Give Colin the Bears, at home, getting a field goal against the Lions. Chicago is 4-1 ATS over their last 5, 4-1 ATS over their last 5 at home, and 4-1 ATS over their last 5 vs Lions. In is last 2 home starts, Mitchell Trubisky is averaging 9.62 yards per pass, with 0 Giveaways and a 99.7 Passer Rating. As a team, Chicago has a +0.8 PPG differential at home as opposed to a -12.0 PPG differential on the road.
Colin likes the Bears running back combo of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen facing a Lions D that has allowed 136.8 Rush YPG and 7 rushing TD’s over their last 4 games. Take the Bears, the points, and the outright win. 24-23, Da Bears.
- Bengals at Broncos (-2.5) – Denver has looked atrocious on offense recently, but Colin loves them giving 2.5 in a bounce-back game against Andy Dalton at home. The vaunted Broncos D just got gashed by Tom Brady and the Patriots, but should get well against a Cincy offense that’s only averaging 16.3 PPG and 227.8 YPG in their last 4 (1-3).
Defensively, the Bengals are allowing opponents to convert on 55.1% of 3rd downs over their last 3 games, and have allowed 149.0 Rush YPG over their last 4. Even without a quarterback, Denver covers. 27-20, Broncos.
- Bucs (+3) at Dolphins – In a battle of bad Florida teams, Colin likes the Ryan Fitzpatrick led Bucs getting a field goal on the road in Miami. Colin thinks this Dolphins’ squad may have already thrown in the towel on the season, based on the fact they’ve lost by an average of 22.3 PPG, and have allowed 184.0 Rush YPG during their current 3-game losing streak.
Tampa is 3-1 when they run it for 90 or more yards, and they should be able to here with a healthy Doug Martin. Take the Bucs, the 3, and the outright W. 27-20, Tampa.
- Ravens at Packers (+2) – Even without Aaron Rodgers, Colin likes Green Bay as 2-point home underdogs against the Ravens and their struggling offense. Joe Flacco is on pace for the worst passer rating of his career, the Ravens ranks last in the NFL in yards per play on offense, and are just 3-8-1 ATS over their last 12 on the road.
Brett Hundley is no Aaron Rodgers, but he’s completing 69.8% of his passes with a passer rating of 95.8 in his last 2. Packers win and cover. 24-20.
- Eagles (-3.5) at Cowboys – Colin is gladly swallowing 3 with a dominant Eagles team facing the banged-up Cowboys without Zeke Elliott, Sean Lee and All-Pro left tackle Tryron Smith.
Philly is 5-0 ATS in their last 5, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 4-2 ATS in their last 6 against the Cowboys in Dallas. Carson Wentz leads the NFL in 3rd Down Passer Rating, and will face a Dallas D ranked 27th in 3rd Down defense. Wentz and Philly cover the 3.5, 31-24.
— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) November 17, 2017