It’s NFL Week 10 and time for Colin’s Blazin’ 5 NFL picks. Colin had a small setback with a 2-3 week last week, but he’s still 27-18 on the year (60.0%), and he loves this week’s slate of games, including what might be his favorite pick of the year.
Back up the Brinks truck. Here are Colin’s Week 10 NFL plays:
- Vikings (-1) at Redskins – Colin likes Minnesota and their dominant defense, coming off a bye, going on the road to D.C. The Vikings are 4-2 ATS over their last 6 facing a Washington team that’s just 1-4 ATS in their last 5, and 1-5 ATS over their last 6 at home. Washington hasn’t exceeded 300 yards of total offense in each of the last 2 weeks and likely won’t start this week against a Minnesota D that hasn’t allowed 300 yards to an opponent since Week 3.
During their 4-game win streak, the Vikings are averaging 32.5 rushing attempts, 132.0 yards per game, and have a rushing touchdown in each game. They should be able to manufacture enough points against a Redskin defense that’s allowing 24.3 PPG.
Take the Vikings, lay the 1. 24-20 Minnesota.
2. Chargers (+4) at Jags – Colin is rolling with the Chargers getting 4 on the road in Jacksonville. L.A. is 12-5-1 over their last 18 on the road, and their only loss in the last month was a one-score loss to on the road at New England. The Jags are 1-2 at home on the year, and averaging just 18.7 points per game. In their last 9 home games overall, they’re only 3-6 ATS. In their last 5 against the Chargers, they’re 0-5 ATS.
Joey Bosa and the L.A. pass rush, ranked 4th in the NFL in sacks (26), should be able to harass Blake Bortles, who has the 2nd worst passer rating (60.3) against the blitz in the league.
Take the Chargers, the points, and the outright upset. 26-20, Bolts.
3. Jets at Bucs (+2.5) – Colin likes the Bucs as a 2.5-point home dog against the upstart Jets. The Jets have been a nice story, but they’re bad on the road. They have 7 turnovers and are allowing 398.5 yards per game to opponents in their four road games, this year.
Jameis Winston is out, but back up Ryan Fitzpatrick has a 95.7 passer rating, and is completing 62.5% of his passes in limited action.
Take Tampa and the points at home. 28-23, Bucs.
4. Saints at Bills (+2.5) – The Saints have been one of the surprise teams in the NFL, but Colin likes Buffalo getting points at home this week. It might be his favorite pick of the year. Buffalo has been tough at home all year, and this game is crucial if they’re going to contend for a playoff spot because they face New England, K.C., and the Rams on the road the next month.
The Saints are averaging over 140 yards rushing during their 6-game winning streak, but it’s unlikely they’ll come close to that against a tough Bills D that ranks 8th against the run, and 5th in scoring defense, at home. The Saints also have a young roster, which could be a factor.
The Bills circle the wagons in a must win. Take the 2.5 and the outright win. 26-22, Buffalo.
5. Cowboys (+3) at Falcons – No Zeke this week, but Colin still likes Dallas getting 3 on the road in Atlanta. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS over their last 5, and are 1-4 in their last 5 overall. Atlanta is 1-4 when allowing 100+ rushing yards on the year, and will face a Cowboys offense averaging 183.4 Rush YPG over their last 5. Even without Elliott, they should still be able to run it effectively behind their dominant-line with Alfred Morris and Rod Smith platooning.
The Cowboys defense has traveled well this season. In 3 road games, they’ve allowed just 15.3 PPG and 302.3 YPG. As a team, Dallas has a +55-point differential in their last 3 away from home.
Zeke, or no Zeke, take Dallas and the points over the inconsistent Falcons. 34-26, Cowboys.
— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) November 10, 2017